Two things as a virologist who has worked extensively with avian influenza viruses: 1. I believe avian H5N1 is not as deadly as they make it out to be. Remember they only count laboratory confirmed cases but we know as with any infectious agent there are people who may get subclinical infection and/or mild infections. Those people will not seek medical care and even if they do they most likely won't be tested to determine the etiologic agent of their illness. 2. I worked on a project where we showed avian H5N1 viruses had varying pathotypes in ducks and were able to map the lethal phenotype to several amino acids in one of the influenza genes. So it is possible to find markers of pathogenesis. That being said, that doesn't mean it will translate across species as we now there is host range restriction for viruses.
Ah yes, the infamous 2011 day-before-New-Year's-eve WaPo op-ed. Clearly timed to elicit as much studied debate among the American public as possible. A public who in fact are contemporaneously in the middle of all sorts of post-Christmas winter vacations, and who probably couldn't be bothered to open up a laptop that day, much less digest molecular biology arcana for fueling delightfully heated discussion in the family car on the way to the slopes.
An op-ed I feel will increasingly likely be seen by historians as the ur-text of the pandemic 7-8 years hence.
Great to read these words from a stalwart virologist!
"We cannot predict whether it or something similar will arise naturally, not when or where it might appear".
This seems clear even to someone with minimal knowledge of the field. As the author writes, the discussion should have ended there.
Two things as a virologist who has worked extensively with avian influenza viruses: 1. I believe avian H5N1 is not as deadly as they make it out to be. Remember they only count laboratory confirmed cases but we know as with any infectious agent there are people who may get subclinical infection and/or mild infections. Those people will not seek medical care and even if they do they most likely won't be tested to determine the etiologic agent of their illness. 2. I worked on a project where we showed avian H5N1 viruses had varying pathotypes in ducks and were able to map the lethal phenotype to several amino acids in one of the influenza genes. So it is possible to find markers of pathogenesis. That being said, that doesn't mean it will translate across species as we now there is host range restriction for viruses.
Ah yes, the infamous 2011 day-before-New-Year's-eve WaPo op-ed. Clearly timed to elicit as much studied debate among the American public as possible. A public who in fact are contemporaneously in the middle of all sorts of post-Christmas winter vacations, and who probably couldn't be bothered to open up a laptop that day, much less digest molecular biology arcana for fueling delightfully heated discussion in the family car on the way to the slopes.
An op-ed I feel will increasingly likely be seen by historians as the ur-text of the pandemic 7-8 years hence.
Fauci date. Notice they announced GoF resuming week before Christmas 2017.
https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-we-are/nih-director/statements/nih-lifts-funding-pause-gain-function-research
Was under impression Fouchier (and Munster) didn't publish full manuscript?